Tropical Storm Alex - Tropical Depression One

Alex, the tropical storm soon to be hurricane, is well away from us now. The storm center passed between Belize City and here sometime Saturday night. We got a lot of rain, and a lot of wind. But the wind was not as strong as we had feared. There was no damage, no loss. Not even our broody hen who is sitting on 14 eggs was much ruffled.

Tropical Depression One Special Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 6:00 PM EDT on June 25, 2010


the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft investigating the
disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea has found a well-defined
circulation center with a minimum central pressure of around 1004
mb. Based on data from the aircraft...advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression One at this time. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on a blend of wind data from the
aircraft and surrounding observations.


The depression is very close to tropical storm strength...and
conditions appear favorable for some intensification before it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or so. After weakening over
land...the cyclone could regain some strength when it enters the
southern Gulf of Mexico. The official intensity forecast is close
to the decay SHIPS model...which includes the effects of
interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula.


The initial motion is rather uncertain but the best estimate is
300/09. A mid-level ridge is forecast to persist over the Gulf of
Mexico for the next 48 to 72 hours...therefore a general
west-northwestward motion is expected during that time...which
should bring the cyclone across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. After 72 hours the track model guidance
diverges...with one group...including the HWRF and GFDL...taking
the system on a more northerly or northeasterly track. A second
group of guidance...including the GFS...ECMWF and NOGAPS keeps the
system on a more westerly track over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
The official forecast is a blend of these two.


A Tropical Storm Warning is required for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula at this time. If the cyclone moves south of the
official forecast track...a Tropical Storm Warning for Belize may
be required later this evening.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 25/2200z 16.5n 83.5w 30 kt
12hr VT 26/0600z 17.4n 84.7w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/1800z 18.5n 86.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 27/0600z 19.5n 88.0w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 27/1800z 21.0n 89.5w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 28/1800z 23.0n 91.5w 30 kt
96hr VT 29/1800z 24.0n 92.5w 35 kt
120hr VT 30/1800z 25.0n 93.5w 40 kt


$$
forecaster Avila/Brennan

Dangerous weather information page.



Tropical depression One is likely to become a tropical storm by tomorrow night. It is likely to pass close enough to affect us. Hopefully we will just get a bit of rain. We can use a moderate amount of rain.

Saturday Morning:

The storm should arrive just after dark tonight. However it rained all last night and appears likely to rain all day today.



Sometime overnight Tropical Depression One was renamed to Tropical Storm Alex. Alex is holding a more southerly course than previously anticipated. Because of this, I suspect it will more or less hit us directly. As I understand it, the forecasters are suggesting that the wind speeds will be around 55 mph. They also say it will become Hurricane Alex, but only after it is long away from here.